Best predictor of earnings at age 30? For 11 year olds, it's math test scores |
On Board Online • February 3, 2025
By Alan Wechsler
Special Correspondent
Teaching better math skills to children and adolescents pays off - literally - in adulthood, according to a 2024 study from the Urban Institute.
Investigators used statistical techniques to track Americans from birth to age 30, looking at numerous cognitive, behavioral and social variables in different life stages. They created a model that predicts the effect of changing various variables on future earnings.
The study revealed that children up to age 12 who improve their math scores by a statistically significant amount (at least one half of a standard deviation) raise their chances of earning more money at age 30. Girls tend to see a higher earning boost than boys, and Hispanics, regardless of gender, consistently enjoy the most sizeable gains in earnings through math improvement.
The connection between math scores and future earnings was seen at earlier ages, but most pronounced at age 11. Other variables considered involved measures of health (including mental health), relationships with peers and English test scores.
For Black children, earnings increases were also associated with improvements in reading scores and the quality of the parent-child relationship. Improvements in measures of young children's health tend to lead to improved earnings as adults, especially in Black and Hispanic children.
The study, "Comparing the Long-Term Impacts of Different Child Well-Being Improvements," noted that many factors affect children's well-being in adulthood. The study sought to identify the life stages and aspects of children's development that provide the best opportunities for students to earn more as adults as well as to live a healthier life.
"Our results can help policymakers choose among interventions aimed at benefiting children in the short and long term," the report said. "For instance, if a locality or state had the choice between equivalent improvements in students' math and reading test scores, our findings suggest improving math test scores would have a substantially greater impact later in life."
The report cites studies going back to the 1970s that had similar findings.
Many schools are still trying to address learning lost during the 2020-21 pandemic. "The average U.S. public school student in grades 3 to 8 lost the equivalent of a half year of learning in math and a quarter of a year in reading" due to the pandemic, according to a 2022 study by the Harvard School of Education.
Results of the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Mathematics were released on Jan. 29, 2025. According to that U.S. government assessment:
- The average fourth-grade math score improved by 2 points compared to 2022 but was down 3 points compared to 2019.
- The average eighth-grade math score was the same as 2022 but was down 8 points compared to 2019 - and was lower than all previous assessment years going back to 2003.
- Most states and jurisdictions and all urban districts had either an increase or stayed the same compared to fourth- and eighth-grade math scores in 2022, but declined compared to 2019.
To improve student's math skills in a systematic way, schools need to emphasize building skills in the early grades, according to DeAnn Huinker, professor of math education at University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and director of the Center for Math and Science Education Research.
She cited a spate of recent studies that have documented the benefits of improving math skills, particularly for students in kindergarten to second grade.
"We're proud of kids when they can count, but it kind of stops there," she said. To improve, schools can focus on other stills, such as "subitizing." This term refers to one's ability to instantly recognize a small group of objects without having to count each one. It's an example of a skill that makes it easier for child to gain a more advanced understanding of math.
To learn more ways to improve students' math skills, Huinker suggests teachers visit the website learningtrajectories.org or read the book Catalyzing Change in Early Childhood and Elementary Mathematics, which is available from the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics at nctm.org.
The New York State Education Department plans to support math education by releasing a series of numeracy briefs this spring.